Toronto Blue Jays Season Preview

2012: 73-89 4^th in AL East

The Toronto Blue Jays are the team to beat in the AL East. They have the offense, the have the defense and they have the starting pitching. However, the big question is whether they can avoid the dreaded “Miami Marlins Syndrome.” Whose symptoms include, but are not limited to, a large amount of player acquisition, usually including Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle, with sudden World Series expectations, only to fail miserably. Luckily, the Blue Jays are keeping the same ball-park, and the same name, otherwise I would say they’re destined to huge disappointment. 

Brett Lawrie

The fact is, the Miami and Toronto comparison is completely illogical. Unlike the Marlins, the Blue Jays actually had a foundation to build around before their huge acquisitions. Everyone knows about Jose Bautista’s mamo bombs but get used to hearing the names Brett Lawrie and Brandon Marrow. Lawrie is only 23 years old, and unfortunately Bryce Harper and Mike Trout justifiably overshadowed his rookie campaign in 2012. Nevertheless, Lawrie is really good, and his tattoos combined with his Canadian blood make him really intimidating. Brandon Marrow is a hard throwing former first round pick of the Mariners who just needs to stay healthy. He is expected to be the number two pitcher in the rotation behind Dickey. Some people are claiming that there is a “Dickey effect,” meaning any pitcher who follows R.A. Dickey in the Blue Jays’ rotation will benefit from opposing batters losing their rhythm, their focus and maybe their aggressiveness after trying to zero in on dancing knuckleballs less than 24 hours earlier. If this is true, and Marrow stays healthy, expect him to be really good. Finally, I hope you haven’t forgot about Ricky Romero, you know the guy who has a no hitter and in 2011 he won 15 games and posted a 2.92 ERA, oh by the way he is now the Blue Jays number five starter.

What’s going to need to happen for the Blue Jays to win their first AL East title in who knows how long. Well first off Jose Reyes has to be.. well Jose Reyes. If Jose can be electric at the top of the lineup, that will put Jose Bautista and Juan Encarnacion in prime RBI situations, which in theory will lead to a lot of runs. Next, R.A. Dickey needs to be an Ace. I’m not saying he needs to win another Cy Young, he just needs to consistently put the Blue Jays in a position to win. There’s been debate whether he can sustain his sudden and unexpected success, for his sake I hope he can, he’s a great story and a great person to represent baseball.

Prediction 93-79 1^st in the AL East

Encarnacion and Lawrie will unexpectedly have huge years for the Blue Jays and they will win the division. Jose Reyes will be one of the finalists for MVP and Bautista will have an on base percentage over .400

Blue Jays' glaring weakness: Why they shouldn't be done making moves

Since the 1993 season the Toronto Blue Jays have been average at best. However after offseason trades, which resulted in the acquisition of R.A. Dickey Josh Johnson Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes, the Jays' expectations are the highest since their back to back World Series championships in 92-93. Despite all of their great additions this offseason, I am not convinced that they will be participating in October for the World Championship. They are competing in a division which all five teams are legit contenders, the Yankees are always good, the Orioles won the wild card, the Rays have proven to be very good the past three years and you can never count out the Red Sox. The Blue Jays have improved, but in order to survive the 162 game grind of the AL East they need to fill one more huge gap in their lineup.

The projected lineup for this year under the current roster

1.     Jose Reyes                  SS

2.     Melky Cabrera          LF

3.     Jose Bautista             RF

4.     Edwin Encarnacion  DH

5.     Brett Lawrie              3B

6.     Colby Rasmus           CF

7.     Adam Lind                 1B

8.     J.C. Arencibia            C

9.     Emilio Bonifacio      2B

The Jay’s offense will live and die by Jose Reye’s ability to set the table and the middle of the lineup's ability to drive him in. I expect Melky to return to a .270 batting average, after he flushes the steroids out of his system, and look for the young star Brett Lawrie to have a breakout season protecting Encarnacion. Injuries have plagued Rasmus, but if he stays healthy he can easily hit .270 which would be a big help to Adam Lind giving him RBI opportunities and forcing pitchers to pitch to him. Arencibia is a young catcher who hasn't shown much offensive potential but will be appreciated for his ability to play defensive and to control the pitching staff.

That leaves the second basemen, or lack there of. Emilio Bonifacio is an outfielder that has the ability to play infield, and scouts have reported that he does not grade out well as an infielder. Of Bonafacio’s eight seasons he has only played more than one hundred games twice, and he has only batted over .265 once. He is a great guy to have off the bench to give a manager flexibility with substitutions, but he has not proven that he can play second base everyday at the caliber needed to win a world championship.

Good thing for the Blue Jays, Freddy Sanchez is unsigned in free agency. Sanchez sat out the entire 2012 season, but the ten-year veteran has a career batting average .297 and is a very respectable defensive player. If the Blue Jays were able to sign him it would create a one two punch with Jose Reyes at the top of the lineup that may be the best in baseball. Adding the fact that Jose Bautista follows is down right scary.

The Blue Jays front office is going all in this year, and Freddy Sanchez should be the last piece to help them make a splash in the most competitive division in baseball.

My prediction, the Blue Jays will make a serious run at Freddy Sanchez, and if he proves to be too expensive they will go after Rickey Weeks near the trade deadline to help fill the gap in their lineup.

-Blake Dale Lepire